Recovery potential modelling of Kidneyshell (Ptychobranchus fasciolaris) in Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) has assessed Kidneyshell (Ptychobranchus fasciolaris) in Canada as Endangered. Sampling data provided by the UMBO (Unionid Monitoring and Biodiversity Observation) network was analyzed to estimate abundance and population growth for Kidneyshell populations in the Ausable and Sydenham Rivers. Population modelling is presented to assess the impacts of harm and estimate abundance and habitat requirements to support viable populations in support of a recovery potential assessment (RPA). The model incorporated parameter uncertainty, environmental stochasticity, and density dependence into population projections. The Ausable River population in the sample sites has a projected adult abundance of 1,129 (95% CI 933–1,360) and an estimated population growth rate of 1.07 (95% CI: 1.02–1.13). The Sydenham River population in the sample sites has a projected adult abundance of 6,949 (95% CI 5,371–9,059) and an estimated population growth rate of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.11–1.15). These abundance estimates are minimum estimates since Kidneyshell can be found outside the sample sites. The population model analysis demonstrated that Kidneyshell populations were most sensitive to perturbations to adult survival under most circumstances. Estimates of the maximum sustainable level of harm (i.e., harm that would not reduce population growth rate to less than 1) were estimated for populations in the Ausable and Sydenham Rivers. Population viability analysis was used to identify requirements for population viability. Demographic sustainability (i.e., a self-sustaining population over the long term) can be achieved with an adult population size of ~ 5,250 (CI: 2,250–9,750) at a 99% probability of persistence over 100 years. Based on current population densities, such a population would require ~ 260 ha (CI: 105–680) in the Ausable River and ~ 50 ha (CI: 22–113) in the Sydenham River. Based on extrapolated population densities at carrying capacity, the population would require ~ 108 ha (CI: 4.7–5,100) in the Ausable River and ~ 10 ha (CI: 0.62– 109) in the Sydenham River. The Sydenham River population in the sample sites currently exceeds this estimate of minimum viable population size (MVP). At current population growth rates, the Ausable River population within the sample sites can reach the MVP in 52 years (CI: 22–167).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".