Bibliographic record
Abstract
GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOKGlobal economic growth is forecast to remain subdued in 2015 as investment, the engine of sustainable growth, is expected to remain not only weak but also below the levels that prevailed at the end of 2014. In this phase of the global business cycle, the strength of the global economic recovery is fundamentally dependent upon business expenditures on capital goods as the initial momentum in consumer spending has been evaporated due to high unemployment rates, part-time employment, and stagnant wages for the employed.Investment Predictive Analytics for major countries- which shape the future path of the global business cycle- reveal business capital expenditures to be insufficient to stimulate solid economic growth and thus job creation in 2015. Executives from Brazil, Russia, and China-three of the four countries of the BRIC group that led the global economy to recovery from the great recession-assessed capital expenditures in the last quarter of 2014 to be disappointing for business growth; to be below the levels experienced at the end of 2013; and, most important, to remain inadequate for growth in 2015. Only in India do executives foresee a better investment climate for 2015 in comparison to the stagnation they experienced at the end of 2014.Assessments of business executives' opinions from Germany-the engine of European growth-as well as those from Japan and Australia have also formed pessimistic investment Predictive Analytics for 2015. In all three leading economies, capital expenditures at the end of 2014 were assessed to be insufficient for robust output growth similar to executives' experience in 2013; looking forward into 2015, executives expect capital expenditures to continue to be inadequate for solid business expansion. In sum, private sector business Predictive Analytics are not expected to lift global output growth to a higher path in 2015.The global economic outlook over the next two years is also based on two underlying public policy Predictive Analytics, which are expected to keep economic recovery restrained and fragile over the forecast horizon. First, fiscal policies will continue to be neutral due to high debt ratios. Second, on the monetary side, vague, ill-designed, and disruptive monetary policies will continue to be ineffective as they misallocate resources and redistribute income by adversely affecting the consumption and saving/investment individual decision-making process.II SHORT-TERM INDICATORS AND FORECASTSThe baseline forecast incorporates major findings of the World Economic Survey, which was conducted in the fourth quarter of 2014 by the German Ifo Institute and the Parisbased International Chamber of Commerce. About 1,100 executives from 120 countries have indicated that global economic activity dropped in the last quarter of 2014 to its lowest level since the third quarter of 2013 and, most important, it stands below its long-term trend. The major findings of the fourth quarter's survey are as follows:* Worldwide, executives evaluated the current economic situation, fourth quarter of 2014, to be below satisfactory levels, led by unsatisfactory levels of capital expenditures. They found the economic activity in their countries in the fourth quarter of 2014 to be slightly better than the economic conditions that prevailed in the fourth quarter of 2013. Regarding the future, executives are expecting economic conditions in the first half of 2015 to be slightly better than those experienced in the fou rth quarter of 2014.* On a regional basis, North American executives assessed the current economic situation to be above satisfactory levels although below economic activity from a year ago. Looking forward, business experts from the United States and Canada expect economic conditions to continue improving in the next six months but not as fast as at the end of 2014. In Asia, executives appraised the current economic situation to be at satisfactory levels but worse than a year ago; they were optimistic about the future, expecting economic activity in the next six months to be better than in the fourth quarter of 2014. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".