Notice bibliographique
Résumé
I. GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOKThere are strong indications that the global economy may be moving from a soft patch that originated in Europe early in 2012 to a new worldwide economic downswing led by the industrial countries. Around the globe, debt bubbles are bursting or held in short-term control by fiscal consolidation and monetization of deficits. In both cases, economies undergo a domestic structural adjustment with adverse effects on economic and jobs. For each country, the length and success of the adjustment to a full-fledged recovery depends on the size of the debt, the ainstitutional and regulatory environment, the effectiveness of the policies, and the response of business and consumers to policy initiatives.In our summary evaluation of the global economic situation last quarter, we mentioned that the Area is in and the U.S. economy is growing at decelerating rates with a high probability of entering a at the end of 2012 or the beginning of 2013... [in addition a] weakening of has surfaced in many emerging market economies reflecting both external shocks and internal dynamic forces. Looking at the new quarterly real GDP numbers for the last quarter of 2012, we can assess each country's current position in the global business cycle. We define broadly a when real GDP declines for two or more consecutive quarters.In the last quarter of 2012, the Euro Area posted a negative rate in output for the third quarter in a row. In fact, the Euro Area has experienced non-positive rates in output for five consecutive quarters, as was nil in the first quarter of 2012. It is now confirmed that the Euro Area entered a in the fourth quarter of 201 1.In the United Kingdom, real GDP contracted by an annual rate of 1 .2% in the last quarter of 201 2, following a positive rate in the third quarter and three consecutive quarters of negative rates. Real GDP in the last quarter of 2012 is still below its recent peak set in the third quarter in 2011, implying that the United Kingdom may have entered a in the fourth quarter of 2011. There is no doubt that industrial countries in Europe are in a so-called double-dip scenario, a term coined by the media.Will Europe drive the rest of industrial countries and, consequently, the global economy to a renewed worldwide recession? In Japan, the world's third largest economy, real GDP contracted by an annual rate of 0.4% in the last quarter of 201 2, which was the third consecutive decline in economic activity, signaling a new recession.In the United States, the world's largest economy, real GDP was initially reported to have contracted by an annual rate of 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2012 - it was later revised upwards to a meager annual increase of 0.1%. Statistics for January 2012 showed a decline in manufacturing production and a fall in disposable income amid permanent increases in employment and income taxes for the rich. The sequester, which went into effect the first day of March 2013, involves across-the-board cuts in government spending and targeted debt ceilings to restrict uncontrolled borrowing by the executive branch of the government. The U.S. economy enters a fiscal consolidation, aka austerity, in the course of this year. As a result, 201 3 will be worse than 2012 for U.S. economic activity with a high probability of several quarters of contraction in real GDP, implying a double dip for the world's largest economy.Although emerging economies are expected to continue recording economic expansion, their rate will be decelerating. The speed of a slowdown in the of real GDP to a growth recession depends on the contribution of foreign demand from industrial countries to overall economic and the effectiveness of each country's policies to stimulate domestic demand.II. SHORT-TERM INDICATORS AND FORECASTSThe baseline forecast incorporates major findings of the World Economic Survey that was conducted in the first quarter of 2013 by the German Ifo Institute and the Parisbased International Chamber of Commerce. …
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».