Bibliographic record
Abstract
I. GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOKThere are strong indications that the global economy may be moving from a soft patch that originated in Europe early in 2012 to a new worldwide economic downswing led by the industrial countries. Around the globe, debt bubbles are bursting or held in short-term control by fiscal consolidation and monetization of deficits. In both cases, economies undergo a domestic structural adjustment with adverse effects on economic and jobs. For each country, the length and success of the adjustment to a full-fledged recovery depends on the size of the debt, the ainstitutional and regulatory environment, the effectiveness of the policies, and the response of business and consumers to policy initiatives.In our summary evaluation of the global economic situation last quarter, we mentioned that the Area is in and the U.S. economy is growing at decelerating rates with a high probability of entering a at the end of 2012 or the beginning of 2013... [in addition a] weakening of has surfaced in many emerging market economies reflecting both external shocks and internal dynamic forces. Looking at the new quarterly real GDP numbers for the last quarter of 2012, we can assess each country's current position in the global business cycle. We define broadly a when real GDP declines for two or more consecutive quarters.In the last quarter of 2012, the Euro Area posted a negative rate in output for the third quarter in a row. In fact, the Euro Area has experienced non-positive rates in output for five consecutive quarters, as was nil in the first quarter of 2012. It is now confirmed that the Euro Area entered a in the fourth quarter of 201 1.In the United Kingdom, real GDP contracted by an annual rate of 1 .2% in the last quarter of 201 2, following a positive rate in the third quarter and three consecutive quarters of negative rates. Real GDP in the last quarter of 2012 is still below its recent peak set in the third quarter in 2011, implying that the United Kingdom may have entered a in the fourth quarter of 2011. There is no doubt that industrial countries in Europe are in a so-called double-dip scenario, a term coined by the media.Will Europe drive the rest of industrial countries and, consequently, the global economy to a renewed worldwide recession? In Japan, the world's third largest economy, real GDP contracted by an annual rate of 0.4% in the last quarter of 201 2, which was the third consecutive decline in economic activity, signaling a new recession.In the United States, the world's largest economy, real GDP was initially reported to have contracted by an annual rate of 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2012 - it was later revised upwards to a meager annual increase of 0.1%. Statistics for January 2012 showed a decline in manufacturing production and a fall in disposable income amid permanent increases in employment and income taxes for the rich. The sequester, which went into effect the first day of March 2013, involves across-the-board cuts in government spending and targeted debt ceilings to restrict uncontrolled borrowing by the executive branch of the government. The U.S. economy enters a fiscal consolidation, aka austerity, in the course of this year. As a result, 201 3 will be worse than 2012 for U.S. economic activity with a high probability of several quarters of contraction in real GDP, implying a double dip for the world's largest economy.Although emerging economies are expected to continue recording economic expansion, their rate will be decelerating. The speed of a slowdown in the of real GDP to a growth recession depends on the contribution of foreign demand from industrial countries to overall economic and the effectiveness of each country's policies to stimulate domestic demand.II. SHORT-TERM INDICATORS AND FORECASTSThe baseline forecast incorporates major findings of the World Economic Survey that was conducted in the first quarter of 2013 by the German Ifo Institute and the Parisbased International Chamber of Commerce. …
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".