A parameterization of cirrus cloud formation: Heterogeneous freezing
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
A physically based parameterization of cirrus cloud formation by heterogeneous freezing is developed along with a novel method to compute associated nucleation rates. The analysis is restricted to immersion freezing, possibly the dominant pathway for heterogeneous cirrus formation under cold (<235 K) conditions. The size of ice nuclei (IN) immersed in a liquid particle does not significantly affect the heterogeneous freezing threshold (the saturation ratio over ice where ice formation is initiated) of the mixed particle. If perfect IN were present at cirrus altitudes, almost all of them would freeze near ice saturation, even in slow updrafts. If only one type of less potent IN with freezing thresholds >1.3–1.4 triggers cirrus formation, cloud properties are not very susceptible to changes of IN properties, as in the case of homogeneous freezing. In contrast, much stronger indirect aerosol effects on cirrus clouds are possible if at least two types of IN with distinct freezing thresholds compete during the freezing process, most likely leading to a suppression of ice crystal concentrations.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it