Accessibility of trial reports for drugs stalling in development: a systematic assessment of registered trials
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To quantify the proportion of trials for unsuccessfully licensed drugs that are not published. DESIGN: A systematic assessment of the availability of published research reports for publicly registered trials testing drugs stalling in clinical development ("stalled drugs") and drugs receiving regulatory licensure in the same time period ("licensed drugs"). DATA SOURCES: Searches of clinicaltrials.gov, Google Scholar, PubMed, Embase, and electronic query of contacts in registries to identify trials and assess publication status. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: The cohort of licensed drugs consisted of all disease modifying drugs in cancer, cardiovascular disease, or neurological disorders that received Food and Drug Administration licensure during 2005 to 2009 inclusive. The cohort of stalled drugs included unlicensed drugs in the same disease areas that had at least one completed phase III trial before 2009 and no evidence of any clinical trial activity after 31 December 2009. Inclusion criteria for registered trials advanced into publication searching were an intervention tested in a disease modifying, phase II, III, or IV trial registered on clinicaltrials.gov, with enrolment of at least one patient, that reported primary outcome collection end date between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2008. RESULTS: The unadjusted publication proportion for registered trials of licensed drugs was 75% (72/96) versus 37% (30/81) for stalled drugs. The adjusted hazard ratio for publication was 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.7 to 4.3) in favour of licensed drug trials. Higher publication rates for licensed drug trials were observed regardless of disease type, sponsorship, trial phase, and geography. The rate of non-publication of stalled drug trials was significantly higher for studies that did not complete enrolment compared with licensed drug trials. A total of 20,135 patients participated in trials of stalled drugs that were never published. CONCLUSIONS: Much of the information collected in unsuccessful drug trials is inaccessible to the broader research and practice communities. These findings provide an evidence base and rationale for policy reforms aimed at promoting transparency, ethics, and accountability in clinical research.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.127 | 0.270 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".