Concurrent and Longitudinal Patterns and Trends in Performance on Early Numeracy Curriculum-Based Measures in Kindergarten Through Third Grade
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to extend the research on the Tests of Early Numeracy Curriculum-Based Measurement (TEN-CBM) tools by examining concurrent and predictive relations from kindergarten through third grade. Using a longitudinal sample of 535 students, this study included logistic regression, latent cluster, and latent transition analyses to examine the patterns and trends of student performance on all four TEN-CBM measures in kindergarten and first grade, math CBM (M-CBM) in first grade, and mathematics performance on a statewide high-stakes assessment in third grade. Results suggest that two of the TEN-CBM tools, Quantity Discrimination and Missing Number, are most robust at predicting later math performance. Longitudinal analysis indicated that students who are low performing in early numeracy at the beginning of kindergarten tend to be low performing in math at third grade. Low-achieving students also demonstrated a greater decrease in math skills over summer months when compared to higher-achieving peers.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it