Further Investigation of Findings Reported for the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Among a number of widely used risk assessment instruments with adult sexual offenders, the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) has been subject to relatively few evaluation studies. Only two independent research groups have published replication studies in the peer-reviewed literature with data not provided by the MnSOST-R's developers, and the results regarding the accuracy of predicting sexual recidivism have been mixed. In this article, important differences between the Barbaree et al. and Langton et al. studies are presented. Analyses reported for the various subsets comprising these two samples indicate that coding discrepancies in the Barbaree et al. study account for the different findings, with a moderate level of predictive accuracy using the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve ultimately found for the MnSOST-R in both data sets.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.071 | 0.300 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".