Predicting balsam fir growth reduction caused by spruce budworm using large-scale historical records of defoliation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
To predict the reduction in growth of balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) subjected to spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.))epidemics, tree-ring chronologies of dominant trees were related to historical records of defoliation collected in the province of Quebec, Canada.These trees were sampled on 136 sites and were harvested for stem analyses that allowed us to calculate indexed radial growth and tree volume increment for a period that covers the last insect outbreak.Defoliation variables explained 36% and 23% of the annual changes in ring width index and annual volume increment index, respectively.Defoliation that dated back by as much as six years affected current-year growth whereas current-year defoliation had limited impact.Several severe annual defoliation events reduced volume growth of dominant balsam fir by 50% over a 10-year period.These results can help predict future growth reduction among dominant balsam fir trees subjected to different scenarios of spruce budworm defoliation over broad areas.balsam fir / spruce budworm / defoliation class / growth reduction / stem analysis Résumé -Prédiction de la réduction de croissance du sapin baumier causée par la tordeuse des bourgeons de l'épinette en utilisant des relevés historiques de défoliation recueillis à grande échelle.Afin de prédire les pertes de croissance de sapins baumiers (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) soumis à des épidémies de tordeuse des bourgeons de l'épinette (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)),les séries chronologiques de cernes annuels d'arbres dominants ont été reliées à des relevés historiques de défoliation recueillis dans la province de Québec, Canada.Ces arbres, échantillonnés sur 136 stations, ont été abattus pour faire des analyses de tige qui ont permis de calculer des indices de croissance radiale et d'accroissements en volume pour une période couvrant la dernière épidémie de cet insecte.Les variables de défoliation expliquent 36 % et 23 % de la variation interannuelle de l'indice de croissance radiale et de l'indice d'accroissement annuel en volume, respectivement.Les défoliations s'étant produites jusqu'à six ans auparavant ont affecté la croissance de l'année courante alors que les défoliations de l'année courante n'ont eu qu'un effet limité.Des défoliations sévères répétées pendant plusieurs années ont diminué de 50 % la croissance en volume des sapins baumiers dominants pendant une période de 10 ans.Ces résultats peuvent contribuer à prédire la future réduction de croissance de sapins baumiers dominants soumis à différents scénarios de défoliation par la tordeuse des bourgeons de l'épinette pour de grands territoires.sapin baumier / tordeuse des bourgeons de l'épinette / classe de défoliation / réduction de la croissance / analyse de tige
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".