Prediction of tree-size distributions and inventory variables from cumulants of canopy height distributions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The method of predicting an unknown target probability distribution via a Gram–Charlier A-series expansion (GCAE) of a user-defined base probability function and cumulants of a known distribution of an auxiliary variable is demonstrated in two applications. Both applications concern predictions of the distribution of tree stem diameters with cumulants of airborne laser scanning (ALS) canopy heights and an index of canopy density as predictors. All predictions were generated in a leave-one-out cross-validation scheme, and statistical inference was based on 100 stochastic predictions of the tree sizes in 308 plots of 400 m2. The mean and variance of GCAE-predicted distributions were rarely significantly different from actual values, yet between 19 and 32% of the predicted GCAE distributions were significantly different from the actual distribution. The rejection rate with predictions generated from a simpler DECILE method was, on average, 2.5% lower. GCAE is still recommended due to its potential usefulness. Cumulants of ALS canopy heights are independent of plot area and effective for area-based least-squares predictions of forest inventory variables.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".