Promoter hypermethylation of HS3ST2, SEPTIN9 and SLIT2 combined with FGFR3 mutations as a sensitive/specific urinary assay for diagnosis and surveillance in patients with low or high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) is a high incidence form of bladder cancer (BCa), where genetic and epigenetic alterations occur frequently. We assessed the performance of associating a FGFR3 mutation assay and a DNA methylation analysis to improve bladder cancer detection and to predict disease recurrence of NMIBC patients. METHODS: We used allele specific PCR to determine the FGFR3 mutation status for R248C, S249C, G372C, and Y375C. We preselected 18 candidate genes reported in the literature as being hypermethylated in cancer and measured their methylation levels by quantitative multiplex-methylation specific PCR. We selected HS3ST2, SLIT2 and SEPTIN9 as the most discriminative between control and NMIBC patients and we assayed these markers on urine DNA from a diagnostic study consisting of 167 NMIBC and 105 controls and a follow-up study consisting of 158 NMIBC at diagnosis time's and 425 at follow-up time. ROC analysis was performed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of each assay alone and in combination. RESULTS: For Diagnosis: Using a logistic regression analysis with a model consisting of the 3 markers' methylation values, FGFR3 status, age and known smoker status at the diagnosis time we obtained sensitivity/specificity of 97.6 %/84.8 % and an optimism-corrected AUC of 0.96. With an estimated BCa prevalence of 12.1 % in a hematuria cohort, this corresponds to a negative predictive value (NPV) of 99.6 %. For Follow-up: Using a logistic regression with FGFR3 mutation and the CMI at two time points (beginning of the follow-up and current time point), we got sensitivity/specificity/NPV of 90.3 %/65.1 %/97.0 % and a corrected AUC of 0.84. We also tested a thresholding algorithm with FGFR3 mutation and the two time points as described above, obtaining sensitivity/specificity/NPV values of, respectively, 94.5 %/75.9 %/98.5 % and an AUC of 0.82. CONCLUSIONS: We showed that combined analysis of FGFR3 mutation and DNA methylation markers on urine can be a useful strategy in diagnosis, surveillance and for risk stratification of patients with NMIBC. These results provide the basis for a highly accurate noninvasive test for population screening and allowing to decrease the frequency of cystoscopy, an important feature for both patient quality of life improvement and care cost reduction.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it