The Development of Psoriatic Arthritis in Patients With Psoriasis Is Preceded by a Period of Nonspecific Musculoskeletal Symptoms: A Prospective Cohort Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To assess whether the presence of nonspecific musculoskeletal symptoms, their degree, and change over time predict the development of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) in a prospective cohort of psoriasis patients without arthritis at baseline. METHODS: This prospective cohort study involved patients with psoriasis who were assessed at baseline to exclude the presence of clinical PsA. The study participants were reassessed annually to determine if they had developed PsA. The presence of musculoskeletal symptoms and the patients' assessments of pain, fatigue, stiffness, physical function, and psychological distress were recorded at each visit. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess what symptoms predicted the development of PsA. RESULTS: A total of 57 of 410 psoriasis patients developed PsA. At baseline, the presence of arthralgia in women (hazard ratio [HR] 2.59, P = 0.02), heel pain (HR 4.18, P = 0.02), high fatigue score (HR 2.36, P = 0.007), and high stiffness score (HR 2.03, P = 0.045) predicted subsequent development of PsA. In addition, an increase from baseline in fatigue score (HR 1.27, P = 0.001), pain score (HR 1.34, P < 0.001), and stiffness score (HR 1.21, P = 0.03), and a worsening in physical function score (HR 0.96, P = 0.04) predicted the development of PsA. CONCLUSION: A preclinical phase exists in patients with PsA prior to the diagnosis of the disease. This phase is characterized by nonspecific musculoskeletal symptoms, including joint pain, fatigue, and stiffness.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".