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Algorithmic prediction in policing: assumptions, evaluation, and accountability

Why is this work in the frame?

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

Canadian funderA Canadian agency funded it. The work may carry no Canadian affiliation at all.

No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Classifier prediction

metacan-v1-d91a1de5be90

Predictions imitate two machine teachers. Scores are not calibrated prevalence probabilities.

Classifier candidate
ObservationalQualitative
Classifier consensus
Observational
Teacher imitation scores

Codex

Observational0.872
Qualitative0.061
Other design0.030
Metaresearch0.017
Theoretical or conceptual0.004
Not applicable0.002
Science and technology studies0.002
Simulation or modelling0.001
Scholarly communication0.001
Research integrity0.001
Bench or experimental0.000
Bibliometrics0.000
Non-randomized trial0.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.000
Randomized trial0.000
Systematic review0.000
Meta-analysis0.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.000
Open science0.000
Case report0.000

Gemma

Observational0.688
Qualitative0.021
Not applicable0.017
Metaresearch0.014
Theoretical or conceptual0.008
Science and technology studies0.005
Simulation or modelling0.005
Bench or experimental0.001
Systematic review0.000
Research integrity0.000
Bibliometrics0.000
Scholarly communication0.000
Open science0.000
Randomized trial0.000
Non-randomized trial0.000
Meta-analysis0.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.000
Case report0.000

Machine scores (provisional)

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Opus teacher head0.070
GPT teacher head0.413
Teacher spread
0.344 how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Abstract

The goal of predictive policing is to forecast where and when crimes will take place in the future. The idea has captured the imagination of law enforcement agencies around the world. Many agencies are purchasing software tools with the goal of reducing crime by mapping the likely locations of future crime to guide the deployment of police resources. Yet the claims and promises of predictive policing have not been subject to critical examination. This paper provides a review of the theories, tec…

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.