An estimate of ice wedge volume for a High Arctic polar desert environment, Fosheim Peninsula, Ellesmere Island
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Quantifying ground-ice volume on a regional scale is necessary to assess the vulnerability of permafrost landscapes to thaw-induced disturbance like terrain subsidence and to quantify potential carbon release. Ice wedges (IWs) are a ubiquitous ground-ice landform in the Arctic. Their high spatial variability makes generalizing their potential role in landscape change problematic. IWs form polygonal networks that are visible on satellite imagery from surface troughs. This study provides a first approximation of IW ice volume for the Fosheim Peninsula, Ellesmere Island, a continuous permafrost area characterized by polar desert conditions and extensive ground ice. We perform basic GIS analyses on high-resolution satellite imagery to delineate IW troughs and estimate the associated IW ice volume using a 3-D subsurface model. We demonstrate the potential of two semi-automated IW trough delineation methods, one newly developed and one marginally used in previous studies, to increase the time efficiency of this process compared to manual delineation. Our methods yield acceptable IW ice volume estimates, validating the value of GIS to estimate IW volume on much larger scales. We estimate that IWs are potentially present on 50 % of the Fosheim Peninsula (∼3000 km2), where 3.81 % of the top 5.9 m of permafrost could be IW ice.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.029 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".