Increase in ST-11 serogroup W Neisseria meningitidis invasive meningococcal disease in Canada, 2016–2018
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: (MenW) strain of the multilocus sequence type (ST)-11 clonal complex (CC). MenW ST-11 was first reported in Ontario, Canada, in 2014. By 2016, this strain caused IMD in five provinces and was responsible for 18.8% of the IMD cases in Canada. OBJECTIVE: To provide an update on invasive MenW disease in Canada including the strain characteristics, specimen source of isolates, age, sex and geographic distribution of cases. METHODS: from culture-positive IMD cases are routinely submitted to the National Microbiology Laboratory (NML) for serogroup, serotype, serosubtype and sequence type analysis. The data from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2018 were analyzed by calculating the proportion of IMD cases caused by MenW compared with other serogroups. In addition, trends based on age, sex and geographic distribution of cases and specimen source of isolates were analyzed based on information on specimen requisition forms. RESULTS: Over the 3-year period, 292 individual IMD case isolates were analyzed. The percentage of IMD case isolates typed as MenW more than doubled from 19% (n=15) to 44% (n=51) in 2018 when MenW became the most common serogroup, exceeded the number of MenB, MenC or MenY. In total, 93 MenW case isolates were identified, 91% (n=85) belonged to the ST-11 CC. The increase in MenW affected all age groups (but was most common in those older than 60) and both sexes, and occurred across the country but most prevalent in western Canada. The most common specimen source was blood. CONCLUSION: In 2018, MenW was the most common serogroup for isolates received by the NML from culture-positive IMD cases in Canada. Over 90% of the MenW serogroup isolates belonged to the ST-11 CC. The quadrivalent ACWY meningococcal conjugate vaccine protects against IMD caused by strains in the A, C, W or Y serogroups and therefore may protect against IMD caused by the new MenW ST-11 strain; however, more research is needed. The emergence of variant strains highlight the importance of strain characterization in IMD surveillance and research.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".