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Record W2965407014 · doi:10.1609/aaai.v33i01.33019886

Counterfactual Reasoning in Observational Studies

2019· article· en· W2965407014 on OpenAlexaff
Negar Hassanpour

Bibliographic record

VenueProceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence · 2019
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldComputer Science
TopicBayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Alberta
Fundersnot available
KeywordsCounterfactual thinkingObservational studyAction (physics)Focus (optics)Causal inferencePopulationComputer sciencePsychologyManagement scienceCognitive psychologyRisk analysis (engineering)MedicineSocial psychologyEconometricsEconomics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

To identify the appropriate action to take, an intelligent agent must infer the causal effects of every possible action choices. A prominent example is precision medicine that attempts to identify which medical procedure will benefit each individual patient the most. This requires answering counterfactual questions such as: ""Would this patient have lived longer, had she received an alternative treatment?"". In my PhD, I attempt to explore ways to address the challenges associated with causal effect estimation; with a focus on devising methods that enhance performance according to the individual-based measures (as opposed to population-based measures).

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.303
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.526
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: Methods
Teacher disagreement score0.303
Threshold uncertainty score0.860

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.3030.526
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0030.003
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0050.005
Bibliometrics0.0100.008
Science and technology studies0.0040.027
Scholarly communication0.0100.016
Open science0.0090.008
Research integrity0.0100.013
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0090.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.206
GPT teacher head0.352
Teacher spread0.146 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2019
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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