Clinical meaningfulness of subtle cognitive decline on longitudinal testing in preclinical AD
Bibliographic record
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Demonstrating the "clinical meaningfulness" of slowing early cognitive decline in clinically normal (CN) older adults with elevated amyloid-β (Aβ+) is critical for Alzheimer's disease secondary prevention trials and for understanding early cognitive progression. METHODS: Cox regression analyses were used to determine whether 3-year slopes on the preclinical Alzheimer's cognitive composite predicted MCI diagnosis and global Clinical Dementia Rating>0 in 267 Aβ+ CN individuals participating in the Harvard Aging Brain Study, Australian Imaging, Biomarker and Lifestyle Study, and Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. RESULTS: Steeper preclinical Alzheimer's cognitive composite decline over 3 years was associated with increased risk for MCI diagnosis and global Clinical Dementia Rating>0 in the following years across all cohorts. Hazard ratios using meta-analytic estimates were 5.47 (95% CI: 3.25-9.18) for MCI diagnosis and 4.49 (95% CI: 2.84-7.09) for Clinical Dementia Rating>0 in those with subtle decline (>-.14 to -.26 preclinical Alzheimer's cognitive composite standard deviations/year) on longitudinal cognitive testing. DISCUSSION: Early "subtle cognitive decline" among Aβ+ CN on a sensitive cognitive composite demonstrably increases risk for imminent clinical disease progression and functional impairment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".