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Record W3022066516 · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2005.05009

Digit analysis for Covid-19 reported data

2020· preprint· en· W3022066516 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Jean‐François Coeurjolly

Bibliographic record

VenuearXiv (Cornell University) · 2020
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicBenford’s Law and Fraud Detection
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Numerical digit2019-20 coronavirus outbreakSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)MedicineVirologyMathematicsArithmeticPathologyOutbreak

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The coronavirus which appeared in December 2019 in Wuhan has spread out\nworldwide and caused the death of more than 280,000 people (as of May, 11\n2020). Since February 2020, doubts were raised about the numbers of confirmed\ncases and deaths reported by the Chinese government. In this paper, we examine\ndata available from China at the city and provincial levels and we compare them\nwith Canadian provincial data, US state data and French regional data. We\nconsider cumulative and daily numbers of confirmed cases and deaths and examine\nthese numbers through the lens of their first two digits and in particular we\nmeasure departures of these first two digits to the Newcomb-Benford\ndistribution, often used to detect frauds. Our finding is that there is no\nevidence that cumulative and daily numbers of confirmed cases and deaths for\nall these countries have different first or second digit distributions. We also\nshow that the Newcomb-Benford distribution cannot be rejected for these data.\n

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.945
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.002
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.533
GPT teacher head0.301
Teacher spread0.232 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2020
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

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