Understanding when real world data can be used to replicate a clinical trial: A cross‐sectional study of medications approved in 2011
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE: To determine how commonly pre-approval clinical trials could potentially be replicated using real-world data from insurance claims databases. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of medications approved by the FDA in 2011. For each medication, we reviewed the drug's label and the details of the pivotal clinical trials supporting its approval. We assessed whether each clinical trial could be replicated using an insurance claims databases by determining whether the following pivotal trial features could be reliably captured in claims data: study outcome, inclusion criteria, exclusion criteria, and the presence of an appropriate active comparator. RESULTS: In 2011, 28 new medications were approved. The most common disease areas were oncology (N = 8, 29%), infectious disease (N = 5, 18%), and neurology (N = 4, 14%). The primary outcome of pre-approval clinical trials was identifiable in claims databases for six (21%) of the medications. Two (ticagrelor and linagliptin) had at least 80% of inclusion and exclusion criteria that could be identified in claims databases and had an available active comparator. The non-identifiable primary outcomes were related to patient-reported symptoms (N = 9, 32%), imaging findings (N = 5, 18%), laboratory values (N = 5, 18%), or other measurements (eg, blood pressure) not typically available in insurance claims databases (N = 4, 14%). CONCLUSIONS: Among drugs FDA-approved in 2011, two (7%) had a pre-approval trial that could be replicated using insurance claims databases. In such qualifying trials, replication using claims databases could be useful in assessing whether they provide concordant results.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.233 | 0.415 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; the direct Gemma label and the distilled Codex classifier agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".