Abstract A03: PrOTYPE (Predictor of high-grade-serous Ovarian carcinoma molecular subTYPE): The development and validation of a clinical-grade consensus classifier for the molecular subtypes of high-grade serous tubo-ovarian cancer
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background: Gene expression-based molecular subtypes of high-grade serous tubo-ovarian cancer (HGSOC) are distinguished by differential immune and stromal infiltration and may provide opportunities for targeted therapies. Integration of molecular subtypes into clinical trials has been hindered by inconsistent subtyping methodology. Methods: Adopting two independent approaches, we derived and internally validated algorithms for molecular subtype prediction from gene-expression array data in 1,650 tumors. We applied resulting models to assign labels to 3829 HGSOCs from the Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis (OTTA) consortium evaluated on NanoString. Using the labeled NanoString data, we developed, confirmed, and validated a minimal gene set, clinical-grade test and prediction tool. We also used the OTTA dataset to evaluate associations between molecular subtype, biologic, and clinical features. Findings: The locked-down test included a model with 55 genes that predicted HGSOC molecular subtype with >95% accuracy. Subtype varied between primary and metastatic site taken at the time of primary surgery, and was significantly associated with age, stage, CD8+ lymphocyte infiltration, residual disease, and outcome. In multivariable models, molecular subtypes lose their prognostic significance in the presence of risk factors such as residual disease and BRCA1/2 germline mutations. Interpretation: We validated the Predictor of high-grade-serous Ovarian carcinoma molecular subTYPE, or PrOTYPE, following the Institute of Medicine guidelines for the development of omics-based tests. This simple-to-use, cost-effective, fully defined, and locked-down clinical-grade assay will facilitate molecular subtype stratification into clinical trial design. PrOTYPE will allow for objective assessment of HGSOC molecular subtype predictive value in precision medicine applications. Citation Format: Aline Talhouk, Joshy George, Chen Wang, Ellen Goode, Susan Ramus, Jennifer Doherty, David Bowtell, Michael Anglesio, OTTA Consortium. PrOTYPE (Predictor of high-grade-serous Ovarian carcinoma molecular subTYPE): The development and validation of a clinical-grade consensus classifier for the molecular subtypes of high-grade serous tubo-ovarian cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference on Advances in Ovarian Cancer Research; 2019 Sep 13-16, 2019; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Clin Cancer Res 2020;26(13_Suppl):Abstract nr A03.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".