Tissue and plasma tumor mutation burden (TMB) as predictive biomarkers in the CO.26 trial of durvalumab + tremelimumab (D+T) versus best supportive care (BSC) in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC).
Bibliographic record
Abstract
61 Background: Pembrolizumab was recently granted tissue agnostic FDA accelerated approval for metastatic cancers with TMB≥10 mut/Mb. However, limited data supports immunotherapy in microsatellite stable (MSS) mCRC with TMB≥10 mut/Mb. We assessed tissue TMB and contrasted it to plasma derived TMB in the CO.26 trial. Methods: CO.26 was a phase 2 trial (2-sided ⍺ = 0.1 and 80% power) that randomized 180 patients (pts) 2:1 to D+T or BSC in refractory mCRC. Pre-treatment plasma was sequenced with the GuardantOMNI assay and archival tissue underwent exome sequencing with TMB assessed per the TMB harmonization project. MSI-H cases were excluded. For plasma TMB, we used a previously published cut point (≥28). Results: Overall survival (OS) but not progression free survival (PFS) was improved with D+T in the entire population. Of 180 pts, 163 were evaluable for plasma and 110 for tissue TMB. Median time between archival tissue and plasma collection was 3.1 yrs (IQR 1.9-5.1). Median tissue TMB was 6.6 muts/Mb (IQR 4.1-12.0), while median plasma TMB was 16.3 muts/Mb (IQR 9.4-25.9). Tissue and plasma TMB (r = -0.039, P = 0.69) were not correlated. Tissue TMB≥10 was not prognostic in the BSC arm (HR 1.01, 90%CI 0.52-1.92, P = 0.99) and OS was not improved in pts with tissue TMB≥10 (32/110 pts) following D+T vs BSC. A test of interaction suggested this threshold was not predictive (P = 0.85). Using a minimum P-value approach, no threshold supported high tissue TMB as predictive in MSS mCRC. In fact, the optimal cut point suggested low tissue TMB ( < 4.1 muts/Mb) had the greatest benefit from D+T (P-interaction = 0.048) and pts with TMB ≥4.1 mut/Mb (HR 0.50, 90%CI 0.26-0.96, P = 0.083) trended to better OS in the BSC arm. In contrast, 35/163 pts (21%) were identified in a high plasma TMB group associated with worse OS (HR 2.56, 90%CI 1.45-4.54, P = 0.007) in the BSC arm but improved OS following D+T compared to BSC with P-interaction = 0.082. Only 1 response was noted following D+T in a pt with tissue TMB = 16 mut/Mb and plasma TMB = 13 mut/Mb. Conclusions: Archival tissue TMB≥10 mut/Mb does not appear predictive of D+T benefit in MSS mCRC. Plasma derived TMB may better reflect evolutionary changes following intervening therapy than archival tissue. Clinical trial information: NCT02870920. [Table: see text]
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".