Efficacy, safety and tolerability of drugs studied in phase 3 randomized controlled trials in solid tumors over the last decade
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Data suggest that for newly approved cancer drugs safety and tolerability are worse than in control arms of registration trials. Less is known about the balance between efficacy and toxicity of drugs studied in unselected phase 3 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) including those not resulting in regulatory approval. We searched Clinicaltrials.gov to identify phase 3 RCTs in patients with advanced breast, colorectal, lung, or prostate cancer completed between January 2005 and October 2016. We extracted efficacy and safety data from publications. For efficacy hazard ratios (HRs) for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were extracted. For safety, we computed odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for toxic death, treatment discontinuation without progression and commonly reported grade 3/4 adverse events (AEs). Data were then pooled in a meta-analysis. Of 377 RCTs identified initially, 143 RCTs comprising 88,603 patients were included in the analysis. Of these, 79 (57%) trials met their primary endpoint. Compared to control groups, both PFS (HR 0.80; 95% CI 0.78-0.82) and OS (HR 0.87; 95% CI 0.85-0.89) were improved with experimental drugs. Toxic death (OR 1.14; 95% CI 1.03-1.27), treatment discontinuation without progression (OR 1.64; 95% CI 1.56-1.71) and grade 3/4 AEs were also more common with experimental drugs compared to respective control group therapy. Just over half of phase 3 RCTs in common solid tumors met their primary endpoint and in nearly half, experimental therapy had worse safety compared to control arms.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.360 | 0.835 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.039 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".