Radiative forcing by volcanic eruptions since 1990, calculated with a chemistry-climate model and a new emission inventory based on vertically resolved satellite measurements
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. This paper presents model simulations of stratospheric aerosols with a focus on explosive volcanic eruptions. Using various (occulation and limb based) satellite instruments, with vertical profiles of sulfur dioxide (SO2) from the MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) instrument and vertical profiles of aerosol extinction from GOMOS (Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars), OSIRIS (Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imaging System), and SAGE II (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment), we characterised the influence of volcanic aerosols for the period between 1990 and 2019. We established a volcanic sulfur emission inventory that includes more than 500 eruptions. The identified SO2 perturbations were incorporated as three-dimensional pollution plumes into a chemistry-climate model, which converts the gases into aerosol particles and computes their optical properties. The Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and the climate radiative forcing are calculated online. Combined with model improvements, the simulations reproduce the observations of the various satellites. Slight deviations between the observations and model simulations were found only for the large volcanic eruption of Pinatubo in 1991. This is likely due to either an overestimation of the removal of aerosol particles in the model, or limitations of the satellite measurements, which are related to saturation effects associated with anomalously high aerosol concentrations. Since Pinatubo, only smaller-sized volcanic eruptions have taken place. Weak- and medium-strength volcanic eruptions captured in satellite data and the Smithsonian database typically inject about 10 kt to 50 kt SO2 directly into the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) region or transport it indirectly via convection and advection. Our results show that these relatively smaller eruptions, which occur quite frequently, can nevertheless contribute significantly to the stratospheric aerosol layer and are relevant for the Earth's radiation budget. These eruptions are found to cause a global radiative forcing in the order of −0.1 Wm−2 at the tropopause.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".