Development of a growing degree-day model to estimate<i>Linaria vulgaris</i>shoot emergence and prospects for improving biological control efforts
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Yellow toadflax (Linaria vulgarisMill.; Scrophulariaceae) is an invasive herbaceous perennial weed of agricultural and natural habitats throughout North America. In pastures or native rangelands, use of biological control is an attractive option, particularly if the agent can be established quickly.Rhinusa pilosa(Gyllenhal) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), a stem-galling weevil, was first released in Canada in 2014 to evaluate its potential to controlL. vulgaris.Rhinusa pilosarequires young, vigorously growing shoots to establish. Ability to estimate when adequate shoots will be available could inform release timing, thus improving establishment success. There is currently no growing degree-day (GDD) model forL. vulgaris. Our main objective was to develop a GDD model for the emergence ofL. vulgarisshoots and discuss the utility of such a model in relation to the establishment ofR. pilosain Nova Scotia. Four sites containing five randomly placed 1-m2quadrats were monitored for the emergence ofL. vulgarisshoots twice weekly in spring to summer 2017 and 2018 by recording number of shoots and shoots with flower buds. A GDD (Tbase2 C) model for shoot emergence ofL. vulgariswas developed and validated using independent shoot emergence data. Shoots emerged in the spring between 124 and 244 GDD with 90% of all shoots emerged between 681 and 1,117 GDD. Model estimation for the initiation of shoot emergence was 74 GDD, with 10%, 50%, and 90% shoot emergence estimated to occur at 179, 409, and 811 GDD, respectively.Rhinusa pilosaadults were released in 2016 (three sites) and 2017 (one site), and number of shoots with galls was recorded. Galls were observed in all three sites in 2016 and in three of the four sites in 2017, with none found in 2018. Timing of release and soil moisture are discussed as factors affecting establishment ofR. pilosain Nova Scotia.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".