Population heterogeneity in clinical cohorts affects the predictive accuracy of brain imaging
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Brain imaging research enjoys increasing adoption of supervised machine learning for single-participant disease classification. Yet, the success of these algorithms likely depends on population diversity, including demographic differences and other factors that may be outside of primary scientific interest. Here, we capitalize on propensity scores as a composite confound index to quantify diversity due to major sources of population variation. We delineate the impact of population heterogeneity on the predictive accuracy and pattern stability in 2 separate clinical cohorts: the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE, n = 297) and the Healthy Brain Network (HBN, n = 551). Across various analysis scenarios, our results uncover the extent to which cross-validated prediction performances are interlocked with diversity. The instability of extracted brain patterns attributable to diversity is located preferentially in regions part of the default mode network. Collectively, our findings highlight the limitations of prevailing deconfounding practices in mitigating the full consequences of population diversity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.024 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".