Lake Ice Will Be Less Safe for Recreation and Transportation Under Future Warming
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Millions of lakes from around the world freeze during winter. These frozen surfaces provide essential ecosystem services that are vital to many northern communities. However, the availability of safe lake ice that is oftentimes required to support these services is under threat from climate change. Here we use a 100‐member ensemble of climate model simulations to investigate changes in the presence of safe lake ice for different recreation and provisioning activities across the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections suggest that the duration of safe ice for recreational purposes will shorten, on average, by 13, 17, and 24 days within a 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C warmer world (relative to 1900–1929), respectively. The projected change in the duration of safe ice will be greater in higher latitudes, but with the most densely populated lower‐latitude regions experiencing the greatest percent change. The use of lake ice to support critical transportation infrastructure will also be influenced by future warming through the loss of thicker ice this century. However, our projections suggest that the magnitude of change in the duration of safe ice will differ depending on the ice thickness requirements. For transportation that requires the thickest ice cover, the number of days with safe ice will decline by 90%, 95%, and 99% with 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C global warming, respectively. We highlight the need for the development and implementation of adaptation plans to address the imminent loss of critical wintertime transportation infrastructure across the Northern Hemisphere.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".