Retrospective testing for the presence of monkeypox virus in a high-risk population from February–June 2022 in Alberta, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: A multi-country outbreak of monkeypox virus (MPXV) infections was identified by the World Health Organization in May 2022. The western Canadian province of Alberta identified its first case of MPXV in a returning traveller on June 2, 2022. We undertook a retrospective testing exercise to evaluate whether MPXV may have been circulating in the province earlier. Methods: Skin (genital and non-genital) and mucosal lesion swabs submitted for herpes simplex virus (HSV)/varicella zoster virus (VZV)/syphilis testing from male patients attending sexually-transmitted infection clinics across the province of Alberta from January 28 to May 30, 2022 were retrieved from storage. The population tested was selected based on the epidemiology of the current 2022 multi-country MPXV outbreak. Samples underwent viral nucleic acid extraction and testing for the presence of Orthopoxvirus DNA using a commercial real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) kit. Results: A total of 392 samples (representing 341 unique individuals of median age 31 years) were retrieved. Of them, 349 (89.0%) samples were submitted for HSV/VZV/syphilis testing, 13 (3.3%) for HSV/VZV only, and 30 (7.7%) for syphilis PCR only. None of the 392 samples tested were found to be positive for Orthopoxvirus DNA. Conclusions: The results of this study indicate that circulation of MPXV in a higher-risk population in Alberta, prior to the first case, was less likely. We recommend that other provinces/territories review their local epidemiology, context and resources prior to conducting similar studies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".