Polygenic contributions to performance on the Balloon Analogue Risk Task
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Risky decision-making is a common, heritable endophenotype seen across many psychiatric disorders. Its underlying genetic architecture is incompletely explored. We examined behavior in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), which tests risky decision-making, in two independent samples of European ancestry. One sample ( n = 1138) comprised healthy participants and some psychiatric patients (53 schizophrenia, 42 bipolar disorder, 47 ADHD); the other ( n = 911) excluded for recent treatment of various psychiatric disorders but not ADHD. Participants provided DNA and performed the BART, indexed by mean adjusted pumps. We constructed a polygenic risk score (PRS) for discovery in each dataset and tested it in the other as replication. Subsequently, a genome-wide MEGA-analysis, combining both samples, tested genetic correlation with risk-taking self-report in the UK Biobank sample and psychiatric phenotypes characterized by risk-taking (ADHD, Bipolar Disorder, Alcohol Use Disorder, prior cannabis use) in the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. The PRS for BART performance in one dataset predicted task performance in the replication sample ( r = 0.13, p = 0.000012, pFDR = 0.000052), as did the reciprocal analysis ( r = 0.09, p = 0.0083, pFDR=0.04). Excluding participants with psychiatric diagnoses produced similar results. The MEGA-GWAS identified a single SNP (rs12023073; p = 3.24 × 10 −8 ) near IGSF21 , a protein involved in inhibitory brain synapses; replication samples are needed to validate this result. A PRS for self-reported cannabis use ( p = 0.00047, pFDR = 0.0053), but not self-reported risk-taking or psychiatric disorder status, predicted behavior on the BART in our MEGA-GWAS sample. The findings reveal polygenic architecture of risky decision-making as measured by the BART and highlight its overlap with cannabis use.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".