Increasing Neurofilament and Glial Fibrillary Acidic Protein After Treatment Discontinuation Predicts Multiple Sclerosis Disease Activity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
<h3>Background and Objectives</h3> Stable patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) may discontinue treatment, but the risk of disease activity is unknown. Serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) and serum glial fibrillary acidic protein (sGFAP) are biomarkers of subclinical disease activity and may help risk stratification. In this study, sNfL and sGFAP levels in stable patients were evaluated before and after treatment discontinuation to determine association with disease activity. <h3>Methods</h3> This observational study included patients enrolled in the Comprehensive Longitudinal Investigation in MS at the Brigham and Women9s Hospital who discontinued treatment after >2 years disease activity–free. Two serum samples within 2 years, before and after treatment stop, were sent for sNfL and sGFAP measurements by single-molecule array. Biannual neurologic examinations and yearly MRI scans determined disease activity by 3 time-to-event outcomes: 6-month confirmed disability worsening (CDW), clinical attacks, and MRI activity (new T2 or contrast-enhancing lesions). Associations between each outcome and log-transformed sNfL and sGFAP levels pretreatment stop and posttreatment stop and the percent change were estimated using multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusting for age, disability, disease duration, and duration from attack before treatment stop. <h3>Results</h3> Seventy-eight patients (92% female) discontinued treatment at a median (interquartile range) age of 48.5 years (39.0–55.7) and disease duration of 12.3 years (7.5–18.8) and were followed up for 6.3 years (4.2–8.5). CDW occurred in 27 patients (35%), new attacks in 19 (24%), and new MRI activity in 26 (33%). Higher posttreatment stop sNfL level was associated with CDW (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.80, 95% CI 1.36–5.76, <i>p</i> = 0.005) and new MRI activity (aHR 3.09, 95% CI 1.42–6.70, <i>p</i> = 0.004). Patients who had >100% increase in sNfL level from pretreatment stop to posttreatment stop had greater risk of CDW (HR 3.87, 95% CI 1.4–10.7, <i>p</i> = 0.009) and developing new MRI activity (HR 4.02, 95% CI 1.51–10.7, <i>p</i> = 0.005). Patients who had >50% increase in sGFAP level also had greater risk of CDW (HR 5.34, 95% CI 1.4–19.9, <i>p</i> = 0.012) and developing new MRI activity (HR 5.16, 95% CI 1.71–15.6, <i>p</i> = 0.004). <h3>Discussion</h3> Stable patients who discontinue treatment may be risk stratified by sNfL and sGFAP levels measured before and after discontinuing treatment. Further studies are needed to validate findings and determine whether resuming treatment in patients with increasing biomarker levels reduces risk of subsequent disease activity.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".