Methane Emissions from Abandoned Oil and Gas Wells in Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada: The Role of Surface Casing Vent Flows
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abandoned oil and gas wells can act as leakage pathways for methane, a potent greenhouse gas, and other fluids to migrate through the subsurface and to the atmosphere. National estimates of methane emissions remain highly uncertain, and available measurements do not provide details on whether the emissions are associated with well integrity failure (indicating subsurface leaks) or aboveground well infrastructure leaks. Therefore, we directly measured methane emission rates from 238 unplugged and plugged abandoned wells across Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada, separately quantified emissions from surface casing vents and other emissions from the wellhead (non-surface casing vent), and developed emission factors to estimate Canada-wide emissions from abandoned wells. Our highest measured emission rate (5.2 × 10 6 mg CH 4 /hr) from an unplugged gas well was two to three times higher than the largest previously published emission rate from an abandoned well. We estimated methane emissions from abandoned wells in Canada to be 85–93 kilotonnes of methane per year, of which surface casing vent emissions represented 75–82% (70 kilotonnes of methane per year). We found that subsurface leaks, as evidenced by surface casing vent flows, occurred at 32% of abandoned wells in Alberta, substantially higher than previously estimated using provincial data alone (6 and 11%). Therefore, well integrity failures and groundwater contamination are likely to be more common than previous studies suggest.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".