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Panel stacking is a threat to consensus statement validity

2024· article· en· W4399722044 on OpenAlexaff
Kasper P. Kepp, Preben Aavitsland, Marcel Ballin, Francois Balloux, Stefan Baral, Kevin Bardosh, Howard Bauchner, Eran Bendavid, Raj Bhopal, Daniel T. Blumstein, Paolo Boffetta, Florence Bourgeois, Adam Brufsky, Peter J Collignon, Sally Cripps, Ioana A Cristea, Nigel Curtis, Benjamin Djulbegović, Oliver Faude, Maria Elena Flacco, Gordon Guyatt, George Hajishengallis, Lars G Hemkens, Tammy Hoffmann, Ari R Joffe, Terry P. Klassen, Despina Koletsi, Dimitrios P Kontoyiannis, Ellen Kuhl, Carlo La Vecchia, Tea Lallukka, John Lambris, Michael Levitt, Spyros Makridakis, Helena C Maltezou, Lamberto Manzoli, Ana Marusic, Clio Mavragani, David Moher, Ben W Mol, Taulant Muka, Florian Naudet, Paul W. Noble, Anna Nordström, Peter Nordström, Nikolaos Pandis, Stefania Papatheodorou, Chirag J Patel, Irene Petersen, Stefan Pilz, Nikolaus Plesnila, Anne-Louise Ponsonby, Manuel A Rivas, Andrea Saltelli, Manuel Schabus, Michaéla C. Schippers, Holger Schünemann, Marco Solmi, Andreas Stang, Hendrik Streeck, Joachim P. Sturmberg, Lehana Thabane, Brett D Thombs, Athanasios Tsakris, Simon N Wood, John P A Ioannidis

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Clinical Epidemiology · 2024
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicDelphi Technique in Research
Canadian institutionsMcGill UniversityImpactChildren's Hospital Research Institute of ManitobaOttawa HospitalAlberta HealthMcMaster UniversityJewish General HospitalUniversity of OttawaOttawa Public HealthHamilton Health Sciences
FundersNational Institute of General Medical SciencesNorwegian Institute of Public HealthHORIZON EUROPE Framework ProgrammeUniversità di BolognaSchweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen ForschungPfizerEuropean CommissionGenentechAstraZenecaEli Lilly and CompanyNational Science Foundation
KeywordsDelphi methodTransparency (behavior)DelphiPolitical scienceScientific consensusStatement (logic)Public relationsLaw and economicsLawEconomicsComputer science

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex
No abstract in any covered source. Its absence is recorded, not treated as a negative.

No abstract. This is not a gap in this database; OpenAlex has none either. 23.3% of the frame is in this state, and the screen finds HALF as much metaresearch here, so the absence is a measured bias rather than a missing field.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.120
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.134
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch
Consensus categoriesMetaresearch
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.448
Threshold uncertainty score0.906

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.1200.134
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.874
GPT teacher head0.707
Teacher spread0.167 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.

Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations17
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractno

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