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Record W4400443106 · doi:10.1136/bmj-2023-078524

Reporting of surrogate endpoints in randomised controlled trial reports (CONSORT-Surrogate): extension checklist with explanation and elaboration

2024· article· en· W4400443106 on OpenAlexaff
Anthony Muchai Manyara, Philippa Davies, Derek Stewart, Christopher J. Weir, Amber Young, Jane Blazeby, Nancy J. Butcher, Sylwia Bujkiewicz, An‐Wen Chan, Dalia Dawoud, Martin Offringa, Mario Ouwens, Asbjørn Hróbjartssson, Alain Amstutz, Luca Bertolaccini, Vito Domenico Bruno, Declan Devane, Christina Danielli Coelho de Morais Faria, Peter B. Gilbert, Ray Harris, Marissa Lassere, Lucio Marinelli, Sarah Markham, John H. Powers, Yousef Rezaei, Laura Richert, Falk Schwendicke, Larisa G. Tereshchenko, Alparslan Turan, Andrew Worrall, Robin Christensen, Gary S. Collins, Joseph S. Ross, Rod S Taylor, Oriana Ciani

Bibliographic record

VenueBMJ · 2024
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMathematics
TopicStatistical Methods in Clinical Trials
Canadian institutionsInstitute for Clinical Evaluative SciencesUniversity of TorontoSickKids FoundationHospital for Sick ChildrenMcMaster UniversityWomen's College Hospital
FundersMedical Research CouncilConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e TecnológicoUniversity of BristolNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchCancer Research UKParker Institute for Cancer ImmunotherapyUniversität Basel
KeywordsSurrogate endpointChecklistSurrogate dataElaborationExtension (predicate logic)MedicineRandomized controlled trialSurrogate modelComputer sciencePsychologyMachine learningSurgeryInternal medicine

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Randomised controlled trials commonly use surrogate endpoints to substitute for a target outcome (outcome of direct interest and relevance to trial participants, clinicians, and other stakeholders—eg, all cause mortality) to improve their efficiency (through shorter trial duration, reduced sample size, and thus lower research costs), or for ethical or practical reasons. But reliance on surrogate endpoints can increase the uncertainty of an intervention’s treatment effect and potential failure to provide adequate information on intervention harms, which has led to calls for improved reporting of trials using surrogate endpoints. This report presents a consensus driven reporting guideline for trials using surrogate endpoints as the primary outcomes—the CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) extension checklist: CONSORT-Surrogate. The extension includes nine items modified from the CONSORT 2010 checklist and two new items. Examples and explanations for each item are provided. We recommend that all stakeholders (including trial investigators and sponsors, journal editors and peer reviewers, research ethics reviewers, and funders) use this extension in reporting trial reports using surrogate endpoints. Use of this checklist will improve transparency, interpretation, and usefulness of trial findings, and ultimately reduce research waste.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.397
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.694
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch
Consensus categoriesMetaresearch
DomainCandidate signal: Reporting · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.603
Threshold uncertainty score0.743

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.3970.694
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0040.005
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0050.010
Bibliometrics0.0160.012
Science and technology studies0.0030.005
Scholarly communication0.0060.008
Open science0.0050.010
Research integrity0.0080.012
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0390.018

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.313
GPT teacher head0.524
Teacher spread0.210 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; the direct Gemma label and the distilled Codex classifier agree on what is shown here.

Study designNot applicable
DomainReporting
GenreMethods

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations45
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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Same venueBMJSame topicStatistical Methods in Clinical TrialsFrench-language works237,207