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Record W4404276879 · doi:10.1016/j.neuchi.2024.101608

Understanding statistical populations and inferences

2024· review· en· W4404276879 on OpenAlexaff
Jean Raymond, Tim E. Darsaut

Bibliographic record

VenueNeurochirurgie · 2024
Typereview
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicMeta-analysis and systematic reviews
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Alberta HospitalHealth Sciences CentreCentre Hospitalier de l’Université de Montréal
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMedicineComputer science

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

BACKGROUND: The term population is frequently used in clinical research and statistics, but concepts are multiple and confusing. Populations are a roundabout way of conceiving classifications, generalizations and inductive inferences. When misapplied, the term can lead to serious errors in study design, analysis and interpretation. METHODS: We review various notions of populations, their relationship with statistical inferences, and whether they refer to persons, variables or theoretical constructions. RESULTS: There are design- and model-based statistical inferences. The simplest design-based inference is from a representative random sample to a real definite population, but it is rarely possible or even pertinent in clinical research. The term population rarely concerns patients. Super-populations are theoretical postulates of statistical models that attempt to explain the distributions and relationships of variables. Pseudo-populations are mathematical constructs used to balance baseline characteristics to extract causal inferences from observational studies. Statistical populations are as numerous as variables. This leads to an explosion of entities, with much room for divergent analyses and manipulations. Target populations are to whom study results should apply. In the absence of a real population, they are erroneously assimilated to the eligibility criteria of study subjects. The inductive problem remains unsolved, for inferences from study subjects to future patients then depend on the meaning of words used in indefinite descriptions. CONCLUSION: The term population often hides more than it reveals regarding problems of generalizations and inferences. Because the term leads to errors and misconceptions, it should rarely be used in clinical research.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.022
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.019
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch, Meta-epidemiology (narrow), Scholarly communication, Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Review · Consensus signal: Review
Teacher disagreement score0.787
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0220.019
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0080.002
Bibliometrics0.0010.002
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0030.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0050.006

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.974
GPT teacher head0.641
Teacher spread0.332 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.

Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreReview

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations8
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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