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Record W4404276879 · doi:10.1016/j.neuchi.2024.101608

Understanding statistical populations and inferences

2024· review· en· W4404276879 on OpenAlexaff
Jean Raymond, Tim E. Darsaut

Bibliographic record

VenueNeurochirurgie · 2024
Typereview
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicMeta-analysis and systematic reviews
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Alberta HospitalHealth Sciences CentreCentre Hospitalier de l’Université de Montréal
Fundersnot available
KeywordsMedicineComputer science

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

BACKGROUND: The term population is frequently used in clinical research and statistics, but concepts are multiple and confusing. Populations are a roundabout way of conceiving classifications, generalizations and inductive inferences. When misapplied, the term can lead to serious errors in study design, analysis and interpretation. METHODS: We review various notions of populations, their relationship with statistical inferences, and whether they refer to persons, variables or theoretical constructions. RESULTS: There are design- and model-based statistical inferences. The simplest design-based inference is from a representative random sample to a real definite population, but it is rarely possible or even pertinent in clinical research. The term population rarely concerns patients. Super-populations are theoretical postulates of statistical models that attempt to explain the distributions and relationships of variables. Pseudo-populations are mathematical constructs used to balance baseline characteristics to extract causal inferences from observational studies. Statistical populations are as numerous as variables. This leads to an explosion of entities, with much room for divergent analyses and manipulations. Target populations are to whom study results should apply. In the absence of a real population, they are erroneously assimilated to the eligibility criteria of study subjects. The inductive problem remains unsolved, for inferences from study subjects to future patients then depend on the meaning of words used in indefinite descriptions. CONCLUSION: The term population often hides more than it reveals regarding problems of generalizations and inferences. Because the term leads to errors and misconceptions, it should rarely be used in clinical research.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.322
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.539
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMetaresearch
Consensus categoriesMetaresearch
DomainCandidate signal: Methods · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Review · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.678
Threshold uncertainty score0.836

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.3220.539
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0030.002
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0050.004
Bibliometrics0.0150.010
Science and technology studies0.0030.043
Scholarly communication0.0150.027
Open science0.0060.011
Research integrity0.0090.015
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0060.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.974
GPT teacher head0.641
Teacher spread0.332 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; the direct Gemma label and the distilled Codex classifier agree on what is shown here.

Study designNot applicable
DomainMethods
GenreReview

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations8
Published2024
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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