Identifying major depressive disorder in older adults through naturalistic driving behaviors and machine learning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Depression in older adults is often underdiagnosed and has been linked to adverse outcomes, including motor vehicle crashes. With a growing population of older drivers in the United States, innovations in screening methods are needed to identify older adults at greatest risk of decline. This study used machine learning techniques to analyze real-world naturalistic driving data to identify depression status in older adults and examined whether specific demographics and medications improved model performance. We analyzed two years of GPS data from 157 older adults, including 81 with major depressive disorder, using XGBoost and logistic regression models. The top-performing model achieved an area under the curve of 0.86 with driving features combined with total medication use. These findings suggest that naturalistic driving data holds high potential as a functional digital neurobehavioral marker for AI identifying depression in older adults on a national scale, thereby ensuring equitable access to treatment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".