Latitudinal clines in the phenology of floral display associated with adaptive evolution during a biological invasion
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PREMISE: Flowering phenology strongly influences reproductive success in plants. Days to first flower is easy to quantify and widely used to characterize phenology, but reproductive fitness depends on the full schedule of flower production over time. We investigated flowering schedules in relation to the onset and duration of flowering and tested for latitudinal clines in schedule shape associated with rapid evolution and range expansion of an invasive plant. METHODS: We examined floral display traits among 13 populations of Lythrum salicaria, sampled along a 10-degree latitudinal gradient in eastern North America. We grew these collections in a common garden field experiment at a mid-latitude site and quantified variation in flowering schedule shape using principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) and quantitative metrics analogous to central moments of probability distributions (i.e., mean, variance, skew, and kurtosis). RESULTS: Consistent with earlier evidence for adaptation to shorter growing seasons, we found that populations from higher latitudes had earlier start and mean flowering day, on average, when compared to populations from southern latitudes. Flowering skew increased with latitude, whereas kurtosis decreased, consistent with a bet-hedging strategy in biotic environments with more herbivores and greater competition for pollinators. CONCLUSIONS: Heritable clines in flowering schedules are consistent with adaptive evolution in response to a predicted shift toward weaker biotic interactions and less variable but more stressful abiotic environments at higher latitudes, potentially contributing to rapid evolution and range expansion of this invasive species.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".