Bibliographic record
Abstract
The problem of combining P -values is an old and fundamental one, and the classic assumption of independence is often violated or unverifiable in many applications. There are many well-known rules that can combine a set of arbitrarily dependent P -values (for the same hypothesis) into a single P -value. We show that essentially all these existing rules can be strictly improved when the P -values are exchangeable, or when external randomization is allowed (or both). For example, we derive randomized and/or exchangeable improvements of well-known rules like “twice the median” and “twice the average,” as well as geometric and harmonic means. Exchangeable P -values are often produced one at a time (for example, under repeated tests involving data splitting), and our rules can combine them sequentially as they are produced, stopping when the combined P -values stabilize. Our work also improves rules for combining arbitrarily dependent P -values, since the latter becomes exchangeable if they are presented to the analyst in a random order. The main technical advance is to show that all existing combination rules can be obtained by calibrating the P -values to e-values (using an <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mi>α</mml:mi> </mml:math> -dependent calibrator), averaging those e-values, converting to a level- <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mi>α</mml:mi> </mml:math> test using Markov’s inequality, and finally obtaining P -values by combining this family of tests; the improvements are delivered via recent randomized and exchangeable variants of Markov’s inequality.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.066 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".