Seasonal Bird Migration Could Explain Regional Synchronicity and Amplification in Human West Nile Virus Case Numbers
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is a zoonotic virus with a mosquito-avian transmission cycle having occasional spillover to mammals. A network analysis of annual log-transformed WNV case numbers (2003-2022) generated four spatially and temporally coherent clusters among 48 U.S. states and six Canadian provinces. Cluster 1 and Cluster 3 were the largest groups corresponding to the Central Flyway and the closely associated Eastern Flyway (with an east-coast subset). Cluster 2 and Cluster 4 corresponded with less-well defined segments of a distinctly different Western Flyway. Thus, clustering can be explained by migratory pathways of terrestrial birds. We investigated avian involvement in the spread of WNV from potential sources in the southern U.S. Analyses revealed consistent patterns in log-transformed case numbers of human WNV. This study highlights the significant role of migratory birds in shaping the spatiotemporal patterns of WNV incidence across North America. However, the observed variability in incidence also likely reflects the interplay of other factors including local environmental conditions, mosquito populations, and regional variations in both migratory and non-migratory bird populations.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it