The Impact of the Hunga Tonga Volcanic Eruption on Earth's Temperature
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In January 2020, we published a paper [1] showing that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claimed that Earth’s temperature would reach 1.5 °C above pre-industrial days by 2030. At the same time, those who study the Sun, such as Valentina Zharkov, indicated that by 2030, the Earth's temperature would be much lower and close to pre-industrial times. The satellite temperature measurements of the Earth’s temperature are the best because they cover the whole Earth and minimize the urban heat island effect. This record shows that from January 2019 to January 2023, the temperatures dropped by approximately 0.5 °C, which indicates that the Earth is cooling. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga Tonga submarine volcano violently erupted, sending approximately 146 million tonnes of water into the stratosphere. This water reduced the heat flow to space. It increased the Earth’s temperature to a peak in April 2024 of approximately 0.45 °C above the safe upper limit of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as promoted by the IPCC. There was no disastrous effect. We are halfway to 2030, and there are serious problems with the IPCC estimate. It is recommended that the IPCC consider revising its estimates of the impact of CO2 on warming the Earth’s atmosphere.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".