Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper examines the economic and geopolitical implications of Donald Trump’s proposed sweeping tariffs on the Global South, contextualizing them within broader global trends of protectionism and multipolarity. Using case studies such as the 2018 U.S.-China Trade War and the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930, the analysis reveals the far-reaching consequences of U.S. protectionist policies, including disruptions in global trade flows, retaliatory measures, and the emergence of new trade alignments. It applies a blend of realism and constructivism to explore power dynamics driving U.S. economic nationalism and the Global South’s adaptive strategies, including regional cooperation and alternative institutions like BRICS and the African Continental Free Trade Area. The findings suggest that while tariffs disproportionately strain developing economies, they also catalyze South-South cooperation, technological innovation, and a shift toward multipolarity. By reshaping trade networks and challenging Western-led institutions, the Global South emerges as an active architect of a decentralized global order. The paper argues that these dynamics reflect not only resistance to selective liberal norms but also a proactive redefinition of global trade. Limitations include the need for broader industry analysis and consideration of counterarguments regarding potential U.S. benefits from protectionism. This study underscores the evolving role of the Global South in shaping an increasingly multipolar international system.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".