Las fluctuaciones económicas en los países del MERCOSUR: Algunos hechos estilizados (1997-2022)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Using the classical Hodrik and Prescott filter, this work documents the existence of similarities in business fluctuations of the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) countries for the last quarter of a century in order to evaluate the likely outcome of common policies. Argentina presents the highest volatility and the trembles that come into being in its economy are two and a half times more intense than those of Brazil, its main trading partner. Despite the concomitance equal to or greater than 60% on GDP fluctuations, the countries are weakly correlated with the exception of Argentina and Uruguay. The Consumption is 50% more volatile with respect to GDP in the case of Uruguay, and the volatility for the Gross Capital Formation is 200 and more than 300% for Argentina and Uruguay respectively. The Trade Balance exhibits the lowest relative volatility and importantly exerts its countercyclically role in Argentina and Brazil. Although the economies exhibit some interesting parallel variations as long as they simultaneously remain in the same phase of the economic cycle, the volatility of one of the main economies together with the weak correlation of all countries’ business fluctuations suggest that the success in the application of homogeneous macroeconomic policies is still distant.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".