Concurrent wintertime cold spells in North America and warm or cold spells in Europe
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Recent work has highlighted the systematic co-occurrence of wintertime climate extremes in Europe and North America. The focus has primarily been on cold spells in Eastern North America and connected wet and windy extremes in Europe. Here, we test whether a similar link can be found between wintertime cold spells in North America and warm or cold spells in Europe. Following previous literature, we consider extreme cold spells in Eastern Canada, Central Canada and Southeastern North America and extreme warm or cold spells in Western, Eastern and Northern Europe, using the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis from 1948 to 2023. We find that cold spells in Eastern Canada co-occur with warm anomalies in Northern Scandinavia. During cold spells in Central Canada, Southwestern Europe records locally above-normal temperatures while Eastern Europe simultaneously experiences significantly below normal temperatures. Additionally, during cold spells in Southeastern North America, Southwestern Europe records above-normal temperatures, while parts of Scandinavia experience below-normal temperatures. Finally, we found that, during warm spells in Southwestern Europe, Southeastern North America records below-normal temperatures. While in most cases only one of the two continents experiences extreme temperature anomalies, we also identify a significant number of concurrent extreme cold and warm spells. In agreement with previous research, we find that the temperature anomalies in North America and Europe are mediated by large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in the North Atlantic region. We interpret these anomalies through the lens of weather regimes, showing that specific combinations of North American and Euro-Atlantic regimes correspond to specific sets of concurrent temperature anomalies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".