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Record W4415403594 · doi:10.2196/86209

Multimodal Data Approaches for Examining the 2024-2025 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak in the United States: Descriptive Study

2025· preprint· en· W4415403594 on OpenAlexvenueno aff
Juliana Sopko, Aimee Han, Mansi Avunoori, Stanislaw Zakrzewski, Allison Krugman, Abhishek Dasgupta, Kara Sewalk, Autumn Gertz, Benjamin Rader, James Sheldon, Brennan Klein, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Samuel V. Scarpino, John S. Brownstein

Bibliographic record

VenueJMIR Public Health and Surveillance · 2025
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicData-Driven Disease Surveillance
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsOutbreakInfluenza A virus subtype H5N1Highly pathogenicPublic healthPublic health surveillanceDisease surveillanceOne HealthPandemic

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Background Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b, a globally predominant strain, was introduced into poultry in the United States in 2022 via spillover from wild birds, and has since been regularly reported, posing ongoing risks to animal and human health. In 2024, the United States reported the first known HPAI A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b infection in dairy cattle, rapidly evolving into a multispecies outbreak among cattle and poultry, with spillover into humans. Publicly available data remained siloed and fragmented, hindering timely response. Innovative multimodal surveillance methods can enhance situational awareness through comprehensive, standardized data collection, integration, and visualization. Objective This study aimed to describe observations from the application of enhanced surveillance methods that collect, integrate, and visualize multimodal data for real-time tracking of the 2024‐2025 HPAI A(H5) outbreak in the United States as an innovative, transparent, repeatable, and scalable approach for open-source public health surveillance. Methods Global.health conducted real-time, multimodal surveillance of the United States 2024‐2025 HPAI A(H5) outbreak using publicly available data for human cases (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), animal outbreaks (United States Department of Agriculture), wastewater monitoring (WastewaterSCAN), genomic data (public genomic databases), research updates (scholarly communication), and policy changes and response measures (media and government) for the study period from February 1, 2024 through February 28, 2025. This digital data stream was used to create outbreak resources—an epidemiological linelist, event timeline, and interactive map—using a One Health framework to track emerging hotspots. Results Global.health curated 70 confirmed human HPAI A(H5) cases across 13 states in a linelist, with exposure for nearly all (n = 65, 92.9%) cases associated with commercial agriculture and related operations. We curated 682 timeline entries across 6 distinct categories: human, cattle, response (eg, research, policy changes, and public health guidance), birds, genome, wastewater, and mammals. The map integrated human cases (n=70) and animal outbreaks (commercial cattle: n=977 and commercial poultry: n=325) into a single view. California was identified as the outbreak epicenter with high numbers of human cases (n=38, 54.3%), commercial cattle outbreaks (n=748, 76.6%), and commercial poultry outbreaks (n=66, 20.3%) during the study period. Wastewater surveillance detected the virus in California, with an unknown source at least 81 days before the first confirmed commercial dairy cattle case. Conclusions Global.health’s approach for integrating traditional and nontraditional public health surveillance data within a One Health framework enhanced early situational awareness during the United States 2024‐2025 HPAI A(H5) outbreak, creating open access to resources that improve contextual understanding of the scope and evolution of this emerging zoonotic event. Further research should seek to understand the full potential of multimodal data in outbreak surveillance.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.003
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.011
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.046
Threshold uncertainty score0.091

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0030.011
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0040.006
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0000.002
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0020.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.199
GPT teacher head0.378
Teacher spread0.179 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

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Citations0
Published2025
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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