Genetic liability to psoriasis predicts severe disease outcomes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Psoriasis is a common inflammatory skin disease with heterogeneous presentation. Up to 30% of individuals have severe disease with a greater surface area of skin involvement, co-morbidity burden and impact on quality of life. Prognostic biomarkers of psoriasis severity could improve allocation of clinical resources and enable earlier intervention to prevent disease progression, and a genetic biomarker would be cost-effective, stable over time, and unaffected by treatment or comorbidity. METHODS: Psoriasis severity was studied in four European population-based biobanks (Estonian Biobank, HUNT, FinnGen, UK Biobank) and classified based on level of clinical intervention received, with criteria for severe disease including hospitalisation due to psoriasis, use of systemic immunomodulating therapy or phototherapy. Common genetic variants, polygenic risk scores and traditional epidemiological risk factors were tested for association with severe psoriasis in each of the constituent biobanks and combined through meta-analysis. The distribution of psoriasis polygenic risk was also evaluated in a cohort of 4151 participants in the UK-based severe psoriasis registry, BSTOP, and a cohort of 1461 participants from Novartis clinical trials of secukinumab for psoriasis. RESULTS: ). Furthermore, a strong positive correlation was observed between psoriasis susceptibility and severity effect sizes across all psoriasis susceptibility loci. An individual's genetic liability to psoriasis as measured with a polygenic risk score (PRS) strongly associated with disease severity, with a magnitude of effect comparable to established severity risk factors such as obesity and smoking. The top 5% of psoriasis cases by genetic liability to psoriasis were 1.23-to-2.00 times as likely than the average psoriasis case to have severe disease. Psoriasis cases in our external validation datasets (BSTOP registry and Novartis clinical trials) were enriched for a PRS that exceeded the 95th percentile established among UK Biobank psoriasis cases by 3.06-fold and 2.32-fold respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The psoriasis susceptibility PRS demonstrates utility and may be more effective than established epidemiological factors, as a stratification tool to identify those individuals that are at greatest risk of severe disease and may benefit most from early intervention.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".