Labor Market Implications of Institutional Changes in European Football
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article analyzes the impact of policy changes, with a specific focus on the Bosman ruling, on the competitive nature of new entrants to the English Premier League. Relevant labor economics literature motivates the prediction that post-Bosman entrants will be more productive and consequently have a higher probability of earning/retaining a first-team spot in top European leagues. To test these predictions, proprietary data were collected on all players who entered the English Premier League in 4-year windows around the Bosman ruling. Regression discontinuity design displays evident discontinuity in player productivity parameters around the ruling, and the ability to decompose the treatment effect among subgroups of players identifies an incentive effect of increased competition for foreign players. Strong and robust empirical support for the motivating predictions is also established through the application of survival analysis indicating that post-Bosman entrants are dominant in terms of career duration to their pre-Bosman counterparts. Robustness of the results is established by controlling for relegated players through the application of stratified duration models and by testing for endogeneity bias for the productivity parameters employed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".